U.S. trade, and U.S. exports, are up almost 7 percent this year, not too shabby considering the trend line of the last couple of years. U.S. trade fell for the second year in a row in 2016, something that had happened only one before in the last quarter century.
But three exports in the top 25 have increased more than 100%.
One of the three, coal, figures prominently in President Trump’s threatened tariff on steel imports on rarely used national security grounds.
The Administration has promised a decision is coming soon, this month even, with most reporting suggesting Trump will impose restrictions that those opposing them fear would lead to a trade war, or at least kerfuffle, and increase the price of a variety of manufactured products that require steel, including things like cars and car parts.
The other two exports that have increased more than 100% are petroleum gases and oil. Petroleum gases, ranked No. 19 one year ago, ranked as the nation’s 10th most valuable export through the first four months of 2017, according to U.S. Census data analyzed by WorldCity, the company where I serve as a president. Those exports have increased 107.56% to a record $7.51 billion.
Oil, the nation’s No. 263-ranked export just five years ago, before a 1970s ban on exports was relaxed toward the end of the Obama Administration, now ranks No. 16. That is an increase of 14 positions over the same time period in 2016. The one-year increase is 138.70%. The 10-year increase is more than 2,500%. Like petroleum gases, it is on track to record-level trade in 2017.
These first two exports play into an increasingly complex and disruptive energy trading market with both short-, medium- and long-term geopolitical implications.
The third export increasing more than 100% this year is coal. It moved up 57 positions in 2017 from one year ago, to re-enter the top 25. Five years ago, coal had ranked No. 15. The 183.59% increase over the first four months of 2017 is the largest percentage increase not only among the top 25 but among the top 350 U.S. exports.
