Kazakhstan’s Crude Oil Exports to China Increase in Q3 of 2023

23 November 2023
Kazakhstan Export Data

Kazakhstan crude oil exports to China is expected to increase by 10 million metric tons a year from the current 1 million tons, if Beijing agrees to invest in additional pipeline links. According to a report, Kazakhstan already has a pipeline connection to China but it is mostly used to tranship Russian crude, and adding extra Kazakh oil requires additional links from large fields in Western Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan exported crude oil worth USD 170.7 million in 2022 and USD 130.2 million during Jan-Sep 2023. Here is a detailed analysis of Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports to China.


Kazakhstan’s Crude Oil Exports to China 2022 and 2023 (Monthly Comparison)


Kazakhstan exported crude petroleum oil worth USD 170.7 million during Jan-Dec 2022, and that dollar amount is likely to increase in 2023 due to growing demand of Kazakh oil in China. As compared to Jan-Sep period of 2022, Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports to China have increased in the same period of 2023. Below given chart shows month-wise values of Kazakhstan’s oil exports to China.

Month

Value USD Million (2022)

Value USD Million (2023)

Jan

7.0

8.9

Feb

18.8

16.6

Mar

32.4

20.0

Apr

5.5

11.8

May

7.9

12.0

Jun

0.4

10.3

Jul

21.2

24.0

Aug

16.7

15.0

Sep

19.8

11.6

Total

129.7

130.2

 


In October 2022, Kazakhstan exported oil worth USD 13.4 million to China, November recorded USD 12.3 million and December reported USD 15.3 million. Get Kazakhstan export data of oil with detailed information in market research report available here.


Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports to China by Quarter


From Q1 of 2022 to Q3 of 2023, the highest number of oil shipments from Kazakhstan to China recorded in the first quarter of 2022, and the lowest was recorded in Q2 of 2022. According to our report, Kazakhstan’s oil exports to China totalled USD 50.7 million in Q3 of 2023. Here is a chart that shows quarter-wise values of Kazakhstan’s oil exports to China.

Quarter

Value USD Million

2022-Q1

58.3

2022-Q2

13.9

2022-Q3

57.8

2022-Q4

41.1

2023-Q1

45.5

2023-Q2

34.2

2023-Q3

50.7

 


Kazakhstan ramped up oil exports bypassing Russia in the first quarter of 2023 as it seeks to reduce its dependency on its vast neighbour. It has the longest land boarder with Russia and been treading delicate line to reduce dependence on Russia without aliening its neighbour. 


Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports to China Forecast


The forecast shows that Kazakhstan is expected to see a fluctuation in oil exports to China in the coming quarters. Analyse from the chart given below.

Quarter

Value USD Million

2023-Q4

44.0

2024-Q1

48.8

2024-Q2

25.9

2024-Q3

55.0

 


Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports to the World


Globally, Kazakhstan exported crude oil worth USD 609.2 million to the world in 2022 and USD 353.5 million during Jan-Sep 2023 period. The top buyers of Kazakh crude oil are Uzbekistan, China, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan. See Kazakhstan’s top 10 export destinations of crude oil with their values reported in 2022 and 2023.

Country

Value USD Million (Jan-Dec 2022)

Country

Value USD Million (Jan-Sep 2023)

Uzbekistan

254.1

Uzbekistan

137.0

China

171.2

China

130.5

Tajikistan

80.4

Tajikistan

47.1

Afghanistan

41.7

Afghanistan

24.9

Turkey

28.7

Turkmenistan

2.2

Latvia

5.4

Azerbaijan

1.6

Turkmenistan

3.4

Sweden

0.6

Iran

3.3

Poland

0.3

Azerbaijan

2.8

Mongolia

0.2

Georgia

0.9

Lithuania

0.2

 


The existing options available for Kazakhstan to increase crude oil exports include – incapable of replacing the volumes handled by the CPC pipeline, and significant pricing & infrastructure limitations. As Russia, one of the biggest oil suppliers, is facing sanctions due to its invasion of Ukraine, this will benefit Kazakhstan to export more oil to Asian region, particularly China.


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