India's Dairy Sector Might See Imports In 13 Years Due To Rising Prices
12 May 2023

India’s dairy industry is one of the fastest-growing
industries in the world. It also ranks as the top dairy industry in the world
among all the countries. Indian government’s statistics show that the
production of milk grew from 210 million tonnes in 2020 to 221.1 million tons
in 2021.
However, the industry is facing huge challenges in
producing an enormous amount of milk from domestic production and farming
households. Several factors have contributed to threats concerning lower
production, and prices have risen by 9.3% in the CPI (consumer price index) on
a yearly basis. This might influence the Indian dairy industry to import dairy
products.
India’s Milk
Imports and Exports
The yearly comparison of milk imports by India is
shown below. The import data reveals that the imports of 2022, by total value,
increased by 133.72% in percentage ($2.71 million), and in the sum of quantity,
the imports increased by 73.23% in percentage ($429.42 thousand) compared to
2021.
India's Milk
Imports YoY Comparison |
India's Milk
Exports YoY Comparison |
|||
Year |
Sum Of Quantity (In Million Liters) |
Value USD Million |
Sum Of Quantity (In Million Liters) |
Value USD Million |
2021 |
0.586 |
2.03 |
11.46 |
120.94 |
2022 |
1.01 |
4.74 |
16.26 |
130.87 |
Increase By |
73.23% |
133.72% |
41.89% |
8.21% |
The yearly comparison of milk exports by India in the
evaluated export data below shows that the exports of 2022 compared to the exports
of 2021, increased by 41.89% in the sum of quantity ($4.80 million), and by
total exports in value, the exports increased by 8.21% ($9.93 million).
Imports and
Exports – By Heading
The imports of milk from India for Chapter 04 (Dairy
Produce) further shows a segregated form of import-export data for Headings
level classification in this chapter. The values are calculated for the time
period ranging from 2021 to the first quarter of 2023 (the availability of
trade data),
The imports of milk without sugar for Heading 0401
amounted to $5.3 million, while milk with sugar for Heading 0402 amounted to
$3.7 million. This implies a larger demand for milk without sugar and
concentrations in India, more than milk with added sugar and concentrations.
The exports of milk without sugar for Heading 0401
amounted to $25.2 million, while milk with sugar for Heading 0402 amounted to
$238.5 million of exports from India. This implies that milk with added sugar
and concentrations is more demanded and supplied than milk without sugar.
India's Milk Import
– By Heading (2021 to 2023-Q1) |
India's Milk Export
– By Heading (2021 to 2023-Q1) |
||
Heading |
Value USD Million |
Heading |
Value USD Million |
0401 (Milk Without Sugar) |
5.35 |
0401 (Milk Without Sugar) |
25.25 |
0402 (Milk With Sugar) |
3.75 |
0402 (Milk With Sugar) |
238.59 |
The top importing countries for the milk imports of
India for the time period following 2021 to Q1-2023 are France ($4.5 million),
followed by Poland ($2.6 million), New Zealand ($893.2 million), the United
Kingdom ($434.8 million), Ireland ($213.4 million) with other countries.
India's Top Milk
Importing Countries (2021 to 2023-Q1) |
|
Country |
Value USD Thousand |
France |
4,545.91 |
Poland |
2,643.62 |
New Zealand |
893.21 |
United Kingdom |
434.88 |
Ireland |
213.48 |
Denmark |
199.89 |
India |
77.82 |
Switzerland |
20.45 |
Australia |
15.21 |
United Arab Emirates |
13.50 |
The top exporting countries for milk exports by India
with the time period following 2021 to Q1-2023 are Bangladesh ($152.2 million),
followed by Bhutan ($28 million), the United Arab Emirates ($24 million),
Malaysia ($17.1 million), Sri Lanka ($7.3 million) with other countries.
India's Top Milk
Exporting Countries (2021 to 2023-Q1) |
|
Country |
Value USD Million |
Bangladesh |
152.29 |
Bhutan |
28.07 |
United Arab Emirates |
24.05 |
Malaysia |
17.15 |
Sri Lanka |
7.36 |
Singapore |
6.85 |
Nepal |
6.07 |
Afghanistan |
2.91 |
Oman |
2.65 |
Kuwait |
2.50 |
Import-Export
Quarterly Trends
The quarterly imports of milk in India shows that the
year 2021 went through fluctuations and registered a growth in the consecutive
year, in the first quarter of 2022. The import values of 2022 in each quarter
show a similar pattern as the values of the imports in the quarters of 2021.
India's Milk
Imports – Quarterly Trends (2021-2023) |
|
Quarter |
Sum of Quantity (In Thousand Liters) |
Q1-2021 |
146.50 |
Q2-2021 |
193.52 |
Q3-2021 |
100.09 |
Q4-2021 |
146.28 |
Q1-2022 |
270.27 |
Q2-2022 |
288.52 |
Q3-2022 |
214.21 |
Q4-2022 |
242.82 |
Q1-2023 |
318.96 |
In the evaluation of milk export data, the value of
exports in each quarter has shown fluctuations throughout the year 2021. The
pattern in the imports of 2022 is similar to the pattern in 2021. The second
quarter shows an increase, followed by a continuous decline in the value of
exports.
India's Milk
Exports – Quarterly Trends (2021-2023) |
|
Quarter |
Sum of Quantity (In Million Liters) |
Q1-2021 |
2.62 |
Q2-2021 |
3.41 |
Q3-2021 |
2.87 |
Q4-2021 |
2.55 |
Q1-2022 |
3.81 |
Q2-2022 |
5.14 |
Q3-2022 |
4.49 |
Q4-2022 |
2.80 |
Q1-2023 |
2.40 |
Monthly
Import-Export Values
Taking a further magnifying look into the imports and
exports of milk from India as the quarterly trade, it can be seen that May was
the highest common month, recording the highest growth in 2021 and 2022.
However, by December 2022, the import value peaked at $635.6 thousand.
India's Milk Imports
– Monthly Trends (2021-2022) |
||
Month |
2021 |
2022 |
January |
197.00 |
492.07 |
February |
82.85 |
134.30 |
March |
225.89 |
481.57 |
April |
156.44 |
417.95 |
May |
245.93 |
500.25 |
June |
206.33 |
296.46 |
July |
214.03 |
442.41 |
August |
88.33 |
401.93 |
September |
139.82 |
266.79 |
October |
204.96 |
314.29 |
November |
210.14 |
365.85 |
December |
60.39 |
635.65 |
|
Value USD Thousand |
Taking a magnifying look further in the exports of
milk by India in a quarterly flow, it can be seen that in 2021, while October
registered the highest growth at $21.9 million; in 2022, March accounted for
the highest growth as the total value of milk exports amounted to $20.7
million.
India's Milk Exports
– Monthly Trends (2021-2022) |
||
Month |
2021 |
2022 |
January |
11.99 |
9.27 |
February |
14.94 |
17.51 |
March |
1.85 |
20.79 |
April |
1.94 |
19.84 |
May |
4.14 |
10.83 |
June |
10.88 |
12.27 |
July |
6.03 |
8.86 |
August |
6.26 |
11.30 |
September |
10.11 |
6.71 |
October |
21.90 |
6.28 |
November |
8.98 |
3.54 |
December |
21.86 |
3.61 |
|
Value USD Million |
Milk Trade
Forecast 2023
The forecast for milk’s import 2023 provides a glimpse into the possibility of values that can be recorded in the next year (from April 2023 to March 2024). The values show that imports will go through minor fluctuations, recording positive values while peaking at $1 million in March 2024 after the highest imports of $1.2 million in February 2023.
India's Milk
Imports Forecast For 2023 and Further |
||
Month |
Value USD Thousand |
|
January-2023 |
309.46 |
Forecast Value |
February-2023 |
1,294.56 |
|
March-2023 |
719.56 |
719.56 |
April-2023 |
|
677.95 |
May-2023 |
|
763.02 |
June-2023 |
|
640.56 |
July-2023 |
|
728.25 |
August-2023 |
|
638.62 |
September-2023 |
|
592.53 |
October-2023 |
|
649.83 |
November-2023 |
|
681.11 |
December-2023 |
|
666.42 |
January-2024 |
|
909.79 |
February-2024 |
|
923.55 |
March-2024 |
|
1,012.15 |
The forecast for milk’s export 2023 provides a glimpse into the possible growth and fall of export values in the next year (April 2023-March 2024). The values show that the exports will be going through fluctuations recording majorly the negative values while December 2023 recording the highest growth at $4.7 million, which will be the highest among all the shown values.
India's Milk
Exports Forecast For 2023 and Further |
||
Month |
Value USD Million |
|
January-2023 |
4.36 |
Forecast Value |
February-2023 |
4.27 |
|
March-2023 |
3.38 |
3.38 |
April-2023 |
|
5.35 |
May-2023 |
|
-0.465 |
June-2023 |
|
0.505 |
July-2023 |
|
-4.89 |
August-2023 |
|
-3.97 |
September-2023 |
|
-4.57 |
October-2023 |
|
1.52 |
November-2023 |
|
-5.10 |
December-2023 |
|
4.74 |
January-2024 |
|
-1.74 |
February-2024 |
|
2.02 |
March-2024 |
|
3.39’ |
The rebound in the domestic demand for the milk and
dairy products skyrocketed the production. While the market consumption grew,
along with the output post-pandemic. In recent months, the dairy industry faces
disruptions in the production while demand remained stagnant.
Several factors such as rise in fodder prices and
lumpy skin disease in cattle resulted in lower productions of milk in the past
months, leading to a rise in prices of milk in the county, and hence, now it is
being speculated that the world’s biggest dairy exporting country will import
certain dairy products.
